The healthy sector was driven by population growth, robust economic performance, and the continued influx of high-net-worth individuals.
The Dubai Statistics Centre confirmed that the city’s population crossed four million in September.
Dubai real estate outlook
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics forecast UAE GDP growth at 4.9 per cent for 2025.
Together with Dubai’s tax-free ecosystem, accessible mortgage market, and relative affordability compared to other global cities, these factors are sustaining demand from both investors and long-term residents.
Apartments dominated overall activity, accounting for 86 per cent of all transactions in Q3 — up from 80 per cent in Q2 and 75 per cent in Q1.
Off-plan sales remained the key growth driver, representing 69 per cent of total deals with nearly 37,000 off-plan transactions.
The ready market maintained a consistent pace with more than 16,500 transactions, in line with the two-year average of around 17,500 per quarter.
Zone 6, encompassing key areas along the Al Khail corridor — including Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley, and Damac Lagoons — captured 37 per cent of total transaction volumes, confirming its position as Dubai’s most active zone.
Zone 3, home to established communities such as Dubai Marina, Emirates Living, and Barsha, followed with 29 per cent.
Real estate supply
Approximately 8,500 residential units were delivered in Q3, bringing year-to-date completions to 30,000 units, already matching the total for all of 2024.
Another 10,000 units are expected by year-end, highlighting a strong supply pipeline.
Notable completions included Viridian by Meraas in Al Wasl, Palace Residences by Emaar in Dubai Creek Harbour, and Ellington House by Ellington in Dubai Hills Estate.
New launches also remained buoyant, with more than 10,000 new units introduced in Q3, of which 97 per cent were apartments.
Luxury golf-course communities such as Jumeirah Golf Estates Phase 2 continued to attract strong investor interest.
Prime residential market
Dubai’s prime residential segment maintained robust performance following record highs in Q2. Around 1,500 transactions exceeded AED10m ($2.7m) in Q3, including 500 off-plan sales.
Villas dominated this segment, accounting for 73 per cent of prime transactions, reflecting growing demand from affluent expatriates and investor confidence in Dubai’s luxury housing market under the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33).
Rachael Kennerley, Director of Research, Savills Middle East, said: “Q3 2025 has delivered further record-breaking transaction levels for the Dubai residential market. Off-plan and apartment activity continued to strengthen their dominance, whilst a drop in villa transactions highlights the lack of new supply in this segment. 97 per cent of launches in the quarter were for apartments.
“The prime market, over AED10m, flips this trend with villas dominating transactional activity, accounting for 73 per cent of prime transactions.”
Investor sentiment
Average capital values for apartments remained stable at AED1.9m ($517,000), while the average villa price held above AED7m ($1.9m) — up 24 per cent from the 2024 average.
Average rates per square foot reached new highs across both categories, reflecting continued confidence and appetite for well-located, premium communities.
Savills also noted that affordability and lifestyle factors are driving renewed interest in established prime areas with strong amenities and educational institutions. Notably, 25 new private schools opened in September alone.
Outlook: population growth fuels long-term demand
Looking ahead, Savills forecasts continued market resilience. By 2030, Dubai’s population will reach five million, and nearly 9,800 millionaires will migrate to the UAE in 2025.
Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency Middle East at Savills, said: “Dubai’s residential market continues to demonstrate remarkable depth and resilience, underpinned by a strong economy, population growth, and continued demand from both investors and end users.
“The balance between affordability and lifestyle remains one of the city’s biggest strengths. As the emirate grows toward a population of five million by 2030, we expect to see further segmentation within the market, with established communities holding strong while emerging zones continue to deliver value for new buyers.”
